CTV News 02/11/2011
By CTV.ca News Staff

With the stunning news Friday that Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak has officially stepped down and the military has taken over, many are watching to see exactly what role the U.S. will play in ushering in a new government.

U.S. President Barack Obama promised on Thursday that he would help aid “an orderly and genuine transition to democracy in Egypt.”

The U.S. president is expected to issue a statement later Friday about the latest developments in the country.

So far, at least publicly, Obama has exercised caution in his comments on the Egyptian protests. He has hinted that he supported the grassroots push for democracy but took pains to avoid the appearance that he was calling for regime change.

But Obama took a firmer stance on Thursday, after Mubarak shocked many by saying he would stay on until September.

That night speaking to a group of American students, Obama referred to “a new generation — your generation — who want their voices to be heard” in Egypt — his strongest comments so far in favour of the protesters.

CTV Washington Bureau Chief Paul Workman said the White House had little choice but to handle the issue with delicacy and diplomacy. Mubarak has long been a staunch and important ally to Washington — and Obama was hesitant to appear as an advocate for regime change.

Now that Mubarak is gone, Workman said Obama is likely to use his address to congratulate both the Egyptian military and protesters for their victory.

But he will also encourage the army to continue to practise restraint moving forward.

“I think what you will hear from President Obama this afternoon is his encouragement to the army to continue, that they carry on in the movement toward free and fair elections,” Workman told CTV News Channel.

“I think that’s going to be the entire gist of the statement, along with calling on the Egyptian people to peacefully move on and to bring the country back to stability if possible.”

Michael Shank, a senior policy advisor to U.S. Congressman Michael Honda, said the U.S. needs to walk a fine line in its involvement with Egypt — offering support while also keeping its distance.

“The U.S. has to support any kind of democracy narrative going forward and has to support the caretaker government but I think it would be a misstep for the U.S. to throw its weight behind the military at this time,” Shank told CTV News Channel.

“While the population trusts the military for security, they don’t want to see the military running the country.”

Shank also said it would be an error for the U.S. to offer public support to any single candidate to lead the country, noting that the future leaders of Egypt must be elected by the Egyptian people, without outside influence.

However, there are many questions about how or when that will happen and CTV Chief Political Correspondent Craig Oliver said many challenges lie ahead.

“We don’t have any idea really as to how this is going to proceed towards democracy,” Oliver said. “Will there still be elections in September as Mubarak promised the Egyptians there would be? We just don’t know anymore. The other problem of course is there is no clear leader.”

Even when a political favourite emerges and elections do take place, it could be difficult for the army to hand over power to a civilian who would effectively have the right to issue commands to the military, Oliver said. Egypt, he noted, is a country with no democratic tradition.

“This is a very difficult, tricky situation we’re in here in the most important country in the Arab world,” Oliver said.

Canada has also responded cautiously to the developments in Egypt. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has refused to openly call for regime change during the protests.

In comments made on Friday after news that Mubarak had stepped down, Harper called on Egypt to respect its existing peace treaties and to be a leader in the Middle East.

He urged Egypt’s leaders to take ownership of the change that the nation is hungry for, and suggested it is a rare opportunity.

“Get in front of it,” Harper said. “Be part of it, and make a bright future happen for the people of Egypt.”