CTV News 12/16/2010
By CTV.ca News Staff

After nine years and a recent 30,000-troop surge, U.S. President Barack Obama says the American-led war in Afghanistan has weakened al Qaeda and the Taliban, but analysts warn that the situation remains extremely volatile.

“In some places, the gains are fragile and reversible, but there is no question more areas are free of Taliban control, more Afghans are reclaiming their communities,” Obama said Thursday.

Obama’s assessment comes from his own administration’s review of the conflict, following its new strategy unveiled last year. A five-page summary was released to media Thursday.

“The surge in coalition military and civilian resources, along with an expanded special operations forces targeting campaign and expanded local security measures at the village level, has reduced Taliban influence,” the summary says.

Robert Gates, the U.S. defence secretary, said the strategy has worked beyond his expectations. There is now a total of 100,000 U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, along with another 65,000 “qualified” Afghan troops.

U.S. forces will remain at war in the country until 2014, alongside British soldiers, while other NATO allies withdraw their troops. After 2011, Canada will focus its resources into training the Afghan military.

However, the White House maintains that some U.S. soldiers will begin returning home next year, although Gates did not give a specific number — and whether they would return to Afghanistan if the situation deteriorates.

“I think the answer is, we don’t know at this point,” Gates said. “But we’re hoping the numbers will accelerate as Afghanistan assumes more control.”

Some analysts, like U.S. policy advisor Michael Shank, say Afghanistan can easily slip into further violence, and gains mentioned in the U.S. government report are overstated at best.

“For the administration to say there’s more security, more stability in the south, that’s just flatly not true,” he said. “That’s not happening.”

Meanwhile, the Red Cross has its own assessment of the nine-year war — that security has actually worsened in Afghanistan.

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